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Scientific Journals (Indexed in the Journal of Citation Reports or in Scopus):


39. "Fiscal forecast manipulations and electoral results: Evidence from Portuguese municipalities." Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice 36(2), 2021, 115-138. With Mamadou Boukari (U. Kara, Togo).


38. "Political forecast cycles", European Journal of Political Economy, 66, 101934, January 2021. With Frank Bohn (Radboud University).


37. "Key determinants of elite rivalry: theoretical insights and empirical evidence", Applied Economics 53(2), 2021, 277-291. With Elena Sochirca Neves (U. Beira Interior and NIPE-U.Minho).


36. "Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions." Economic Inquiry 57(4), October 2019, 2058-2081. With Frank Bohn (Radboud University).


35. "Elections, Recession Expectations and Excessive Debt: An Unholy Trinity." Public Choice 180(3-4), September 2019, 429–449 . With Frank Bohn (Radboud University).

            Online Appendix (pdf). Data (dta).


34. "Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support." Kyklos 72(3), August 2019, 357-380. With Luís Aguiar-Conraria (NIPE-U.Minho) and Pedro C. Magalhães (ICS-U.Lisbon).


33.  “The effects of electoral incentives on fiscal policy: Evidence from a legislative change at the local government level.” Journal of Law, Economics & Organization  35(2), July 2019, 394–421 . With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE-U.Minho).

            Online Appendix (pdf). Data and replication files (zip).


32. “Disentangling Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Forecast Errors: A Comparative Approach.” Journal of Comparative Economics 46(4), December 2018, 1030-1045. With Mamadou Boukari (U. Lille).

            Online Appendix (pdf). Data and replication files (zip).


31. "Term limits and voter turnout" Electoral Studies 53, June 2018, 20-28. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE-U.Minho).

            Online Appendix (pdf). Data and replication files (zip).


30. “Public numbers on monetary valuation of fish landings.” Data in Brief 17, april 2018, 184-188. With Pedro Goulart (ISCSP-U. Lisbon) and Catarina Grilo (FCGulbenkian). Data article which refers to Goulart, Veiga e Grilo (2018, Fisheries Research).


29. “The evolution of fisheries in Portugal: a methodological reappraisal with insights from economics.” Fisheries Research 199, March 2018, 76-80. With Pedro Goulart (ISCSP-U. Lisbon) and Catarina Grilo (FCGulbenkian).


28. "Political budget cycles and media freedom" Electoral Studies 45, February 2017, 88-99. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE-U.Minho) and Atsuyoshi Morozumi (U. Nottingham).

            Online Appendix (pdf). Data and replication files (zip).


27. "Public spending and growth: the role of government accountability." European Economic Review 89, October 2016, 148-171. With Atsuyoshi Morozumi (U. Nottingham).

            Online Appendix (pdf).  Data and replication files (zip). 


26. "Portuguese 2015 legislative elections: How economic voting, the median voter and unemployment led to 'the times they are a'changin'? " Electoral Studies 43, September 2016, 197-200. With Pedro Goulart (ISCSP-U.Lisbon).


25. "Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?" European Journal of Political Economy 36, December 2014, 274-286. With Rodrigo Martins (U.Coimbra).


24. “Government size, composition of public expenditure, and economic development." Internationational Tax and Public Finance 21(4), August 2014, 578-597. With Susana Martins (U.Minho).


23. “Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections" Public Choice 157(3-4), December 2013, 429-448. With Rodrigo Martins (U. Coimbra and GEMF).


22. Financial globalization, convergence and growth: The role of foreign direct investment.” Journal of International Money and Finance 37, October 2013, 161-186. With Delfim Gomes Neto (NIPE - U. Minho).


21. “Intergovernmental fiscal transfers as pork barrel." Public Choice 155(3-4), June 2013, 335-353. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


20. “Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections." Public Choice 155(3-4), June 2013, 317-334. With Rodrigo Martins (U. Coimbra and GEMF).


19. "How does political instability affect economic growth?" European Journal of Political Economy 29, March 2013, 151-167. With Ari Aisen (International Monetary Fund).

        Data bases (annual and 5-year periods data), do-file and log-file of the Descriptive Statistics (Stata)


18. “Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model." Public Choice 148(1-2), July 2011, 21-44. With Toke Aidt (U. Cambridge) and Linda Gonçalves Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).

17. “The Impact of Local and National Economic Conditions on legislative Elections results.” Applied Economics 42(13), May-june 2010, 1727-1734. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


16. “The political economy of seigniorage.” Journal of Development Economics 87(1), August 2008, 29-50. With Ari Aisen (IMF).

         Database (Stata format).


15. “Political instability and inflation volatility. Public Choice 135(3-4), June 2008, 207-223. With Ari Aisen (IMF).


14. "Why do stabilizations fail." Journal of Economic Policy Reform 11(2), June 2008, 135-149.


13. “Does opportunism pay off?” Economics Letters 96(2), August 2007, 177-182. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


12. "Political business cycles at the municipal level.” Public Choice 131(1-2), April 2007, 45-64. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


11. “Da li politička nestabilnost vodi ka višoj i promenljivijoj inflaciji? Analiza panel podataka”, Panoeconomicus 1/2007, 5-27. This article is a translation in Serbian language of Aisen and Veiga (2006, JMCB).


10. "Currency substitution, portfolio diversification and money demand." Canadian Journal of Economics 39(3), August 2006, 719-743. With Miguel Lebre de Freitas (NIPE and U. Aveiro).


9. "Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A panel data analysis."  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38(5), August 2006, 1379-1389. With Ari Aisen (IMF).

         Database (Stata and Excel), description of the variables, do-files and log-files (Stata), and unpublished appendix.


8. “Political business cycles in local employment: Evidence from Portugal.” Economics Letters 93(1), October 2006, 82-87. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho)and César Coelho (NIPE).


7. “Eleitoralismo nos municípios portugueses” (Electoralism in Portuguese municipalities). Análise Social, XL(177), December 2005, 865-889. With Linda Gonçalves Veiga.


6. “Does IMF support accelerate inflation stabilization?Open Economies Review, 16(4), October 2005, 321-340.


5. "Political business cycles and inflation stabilization," Economics Letters 83(1), April 2004, 1-6. With Vítor Castro (NIPE and U. Coimbra).


4. "Popularity functions, partisan effects and support in Parliament," Economics & Politics, 16(1), March 2004, 101-115. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


3. "The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal," Public Choice 118(3-4), March 2004, 341-364. With Linda G. Veiga (NIPE - U. Minho).


2. "Delays of inflation stabilizations", Economics and Politics, 12(3), November 2000, 275-295.


1. "What causes the failure of inflation stabilization plans?", Journal of International Money and Finance, 18(2), April 1999, 169-194.




Other articles, book chapters and proceedings with referees:


“Instituições e o crescimento da economia portuguesa.” In Duarte, A. P., M. Simões, P. Bação and R. Morais, coordinators. Estudos de Homenagem a João Sousa Andrade. Almedina, Coimbra, May 2020, pp. 219-234.

 "Institutions, government stability and human capital accumulation." Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, 17(2), december 2019, 255-271. With Kézia de Lucas Bondezan e Joilson Dias (U. Estadual de Maringá, Brasil).

"Forecast errors in prices and wages: The experience with three Programme countries." Notas Económicas 44, julho de 2017, 7-24.

"Cooperação Territorial Europeia e Cultura em Portugal." Lusophone Journal of Cultural Studies 2(2), December 2014, 99-126. With Francisco Carballo-Cruz (NIPE-U.Minho) and Linda G. Veiga (NIPE-U.Minho).

“Instituições, estabilidade política e desempenho económico – implicações para Portugal.” In Alexandre, F., P. Bação, P. Lains, M.M.F. Martins, M. Portela e M. Simões, organizadores. A Economia Portuguesa na União Europeia: 1986-2010. Actual, Lisboa, March 2014, pp. 287-307.

“Solar emergy evaluation of the Portuguese economy.” In Brown, M.T., S. Sweeney, D.E. Campbell, S. Huang, D. Kang, T. Rydberg, D. Tilley and S. Ulgiati (eds). 2013. Emergy Synthesis 7: Theory and Applications of the Emergy Methodology. Proceedings of the 7th Biennial Emergy Conference. Center for Environmental Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville. Capítulo 49, pp. 437-451. With Carlos Oliveira, Cecília Martins e José Gonçalves. ISBN:  978-0-9707325-6-9. 

“Direitos e deveres económicos, sociais e culturais (Art. 58º a 79º) e Organização económica (Art. 80º a 107º)., in Tavares, J.A., M.P. Maduro, N. Garoupa e P. Magalhães, editores. A Constituição revista, Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, Lisboa, April 2011. ISBN: 978-989-8424-28-0, pp. 33-36.

“Political Business Cycles”, in Kurian, G.T., J. Alt, S. Chambers, G. Garrett, M. Levi e P.D. McClain, editores. The Encyclopedia of Political Science, CQ Press, Outubro de 2010. ISBN: 978-1-933116-44-0, pp. 169-170.


“Economics, popularity and vote intentions in Portugal: A longitudinal analysis with aggregate data.” In Freire, André; Marina Costa Lobo and Pedro Magalhães, eds., Portugal at the Polls: The 2002 Legislative Elections, Lexington Books, Lanham, Maryland, 2007, 75-99. With Linda Gonçalves Veiga.


“Ciclos politico económicos nos municípios portugueses.” In Banco de Portugal,  Desenvolvimento Económico Português no Espaço Europeu, Banco de Portugal, Lisbon, 2006, pp. 93-118. With Linda Gonçalves Veiga.


“Economia, popularidade e intenções de voto em Portugal: uma análise longitudinal com dados agregados.“ In Freire, André, Marina Costa Lobo e Pedro Magalhães, eds., Portugal a Votos – As Eleições Legislativas de 2002, Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, 2004, pp. 125-157. With Linda Gonçalves Veiga.


"Real Convergence in the European Union." In APDR, Perspectivas de Desenvolvimento para as Regiões Marítimas Europeias, APDR, Coimbra, 2000, vol. 2, 977-994.





NIPE Working Papers not yet published:


"Measuring political rivalry and estimating its effect on economic growth." NIPE - WP 04/2017. With Elena Sochirca Neves (NIPE-UMinho).


"Determinants of Portuguese local governments’ indebtedness", NIPE - WP 16/2014. With Linda Veiga (NIPE-U.Minho).








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